What’s happening in the real estate market?
Many people are asking me, what’s happening in the real estate market? Are any homes selling?
We’re in the middle of the lockdown, the pandemic. First of all let me say, I hope you and your family are doing well, that you’re safe and healthy.
So what is happening in the real estate market? This may surprise you, because it did surprise me. I ran some statistics, and it took a lot of work, but I came up with, I think, a pretty good model that reflects, not prices, because we don’t really have good price data yet.
The data I’m looking at is the number of homes that have gone into escrow in the past two weeks, compared to the same two weeks of last year. So, based on that, the numbers are interesting.
For the county of San Diego, we are at about 38% of where we were a year ago. It’s actually better than I expected.
Now, breaking the county into two price segments, the $500,000 to $700,000 segment is at 42%. Which is also pretty good, not great, but better than one might think.
Homes over two million though, not doing that great, they’re at about 15% of the activity level, the number of homes going to escrow as they were a year ago.
Now, I picked five neighborhoods that are central coastal, and I wanted to share those numbers. Now keep in mind, these are very, very small samples. One home sale, can throw these numbers off, can change them dramatically, and you’re going to see one neighborhood where that’s particularly significant.
Clairemont, is at about 25% of the activity of a year ago. So again, that is the number of homes going into escrow in this two week period.
Bay Park, and here’s the anomaly, is at zero percent. Does that mean that the people have decided, “I don’t like Bay Park anymore, I don’t wanna live there”?
Not at all. It just means that, first of all, it’s probably the smallest neighborhood of the five that I’m looking at here, and one or two home sales would have changed this dramatically.
University City is at about 26%, Pacific Beach at about 20%, and La Jolla at about 11%, and the La Jolla number, not a good number, but it does track with the county wide, two million plus number, because so many homes in La Jolla are two million plus.
So, really what we’re looking at is, a slow down, as expected, but the market has definitely not stopped, homes are still selling.
Hopefully you find that informative, if there’s something that I can do for you, whether it’s buying a home, selling a home, planning ahead, to buy or sell a home, determining the value of your home, answering a question, whatever you need, I’m here to help you.
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